Alexander A. Gusev

Doctor of Science (physics and mathematics)

Head of Seismology Group,
 Institute of Volcanology & Seismology Russian Academy of Sciences

Chief science fellow,
Kamchatka Branch, Geophysical Service, Russian Academy of Sciences

Mail address: Institute of Volcanology and Seismology, Piip Blvd., 9, Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, 683006, Russia.
Phone +(7)-
415-2-298045   Fax: (+7)415 229 7982


E-mail: gusevat_commemsd.ru

Research field: SEISMOLOGY,


  • Earthquake source physics; random source structure
  • Random wave fields generated by earthquake sources; simulation of strong ground motion
  • Engineering seismology, seismic hazard, seismic zoning
  • Data processing and interpretation
  • Temporal structure of catalogs of earthquakes and volcanic eruptions
  • Scattering and attenuation of seismic waves


Marbled limestone found near Gemona di Friuli, Italy, with the grid of subparallel joints: natural model of the multiscaled grid of active seismogenic faults in the Earth



·       Publications; 

·       Lectures and reports;

·       Miscellaneous


Selected Papers

(Both originally in English and from translated Russian journals. In the second case, some translations are of inferior quality. Do not hesitate to ask me in case of doubt)



Gusev A.A. 1983. Descriptive statistical model of earthquake source radiation and its application to an estimation of short-period strong motion. Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc., V. 74, p. 787-808. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., V.K. Lemzikov. 1983. Estimation of scattering characteristics of shear waves in crust and upper mantle of Kamchatka based of Shipunski station data. Vulkanology and Seismology. No 1, p. 97-114. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., V.K. Lemzikov. 1985. Properties of scattered elastic waves in the lithosphere of Kamchatka: parameters and temporal variations. Tectonophysics. V. 112, p. 137-153. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., I.R. Abubakirov. 1987. Monte-Carlo simulation of record envelope of a near earthquake. Phys.Earth.Planet Interiors, v.49, p. 30-36. pdf >>


Gusev A.A. and V.K. Lemzikov. 1988. Coda-wave anomalies in small earthquakes before three large earthquakes in the Kuril-Kamchatka area. Vulkanology and Seismology, V. 6, No 4, p. 583-603. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 1990. A model for fault plane with many asperities. Volc. Seis., V. 10, p. 59-85. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 1988. Two dilatancy-based models to explain coda-wave precursors and P/S spectral ratio. Tеctonophys, V. 152, p. 227-237. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., V.M., Pavlov. 1988. Determination of space-time structure of a deep earthquake source by means of power moments. Tectonophysics, V. 152, p. 319-334. pdf >>


Lemzikov V.K., A.A. Gusev. 1991. Coda-Based Energy Classification of Near Kamchatka Earthquakes. Volc. Seis., V. 11, p. 558-578. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 1989. Multiasperity Fault Model and the Nature of Short-Period Subsources. PAGEOPH., V. 130, No 4, p. 635-660. pdf >>

Guseva E.M., A.A. Gusev, L.S. Oskorbin. 1991. A software package for earrthquake data processing: experimental application to strong motion records. Vulc. Seis., V. 11, p. 648-670. pdf >>


Gusev A.A. 1990. On relations between asperity population and earthquake population on a fault. Extended Abstract. Vol. International symposium on earthquake source physics and earthquake precursors. University of Tokyo, Bunkyo-ky, Tokyo, p. 140-142. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., V.N. Melnikova. 1992. Relationships between Magnitude Scales for Global and Kamchatkan Earthquakes. Vulc. Seis., V. 12, p. 723-733. pdf >>

Abubakirov I.R., A.A. Gusev. 1990. Estimation of scattering properties of lithosphere of Kamchatka based on Monte-Carlo simulation of record envelope of a near earthquake. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., V. 64, p. 52-67. pdf >>


Gusev A.A., V.M. Pavlov. 1991. Deconvolution of Squared Velocity Waveform as Applied to the Study of a Noncoherent Short-period Radiator in the Earthquake Source. PAGEOPH, V. 136, p. 235-244. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 1991. Intermagnitude relationsips and asperity statistics. Pure Appl. Geophys, V. 136, p. 515-527. pdf >>


Gusev A.A. 1992. On relations between earthquake population and asperity population on a fault. Tectonophysics, V. 211, p. 85-98. pdf >>


Gusev A.A., A.G. Petukhin. 1996. An Algorithm for Forecasting Earthquake Ground Motion. Volc. Seis., V. 17, p. 571-584. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 1995. Baylike and continuous variations of the relative level of the late coda during 24 years of observation on Kamchatka. J.Geophys.Res., V. 100, p. 20,311-20,319. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 1995. Vertical Profile of Turbidity and Coda Q. Geophys. J. Int., v. 123, p. 665-672. pdf >>


Gusev A.A., I.R. Abubakirov. 1997. Study of the Vertical Scattering Properties of the Lithosphere Based on the Inversion of P- and S-Wave Pulse Broadening Data. Volc. Seis., V. 18, p. 453-464. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 1996. Peak factors of Mexican accelerograms: evidence of non-Gaussian amplitude distribution. J. Geopys. Res., V. 101, p. 20083-20090. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., I.R. Abubakirov. 1996. Simulated envelopes of non-isotropically scattered body waves as compared to observed ones: another manifestation of fractal heterogeneity. Geophys. J. Int., V. 127, p. 49-60. pdf >>


Gusev A.A. 1997. Temporal variations of the coda decay rate on Kamchatka: are they real and precursory? J.Geophys. Res., V. 102, p. 8381-8396. pdf >>

Gusev A. A., E.I. Gordeev, E.M. Guseva, A.G. Petukhin, V.N. Chebrov. 1997 The First Version of the Amax (MW , R) Relationship for Kamchatka. Pure appl. Geophys, V. 149, p. 299–312. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 1997. Regional amplification of ground motion in central Mexico. Results from coda-length magnitude data and preliminary modeling. J. Seismol., V. 1, p. 341–355. pdf >>


Gusev A.A., A.G. Petukhin. 1998. Possible Timing of Large Earthquakes by 18.6-year Lunar Cycles, Their Multiples, and Functions. Volc. Seis., V. 19, p. 333-351. pdf >>

Gusev A. A., V. M. Pavlov. 1997. Preliminary determination of parameters of the high-frequency source for the Dec. 05, 1997, Mw=7.9, Kronotski earthquake. XXVI Gen. Assembly, Eur. Seismol. Comission, Papers, Tel-Aviv, Israel, p 73-77. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva, A.G. Petukhin, E.I. Gordeev, V.N. Chebrov. 1998. Peak Ground Accelerations in the Kamchatka Peninsula from Data of Strong Motion Instruments. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, V. 34, No 4, p. 283-290. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 1998. Earthquake Precursors: Banished Forever?. Eos, Trans. Amer.Geophys.Union 79, p. 71-72; Reply, ibid., 79, 373. pdf >>


Gusev A.A., I.R. Abubakirov. 1999. Vertical profile of effective turbidity reconstructed from broadening of incoherent body-wave pulses - I. General approach and the inversion procedure. Geophys.J.Int., V. 136, p. 295-308. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., I.R. Abubakirov. 1999. Vertical profile of effective turbidity reconstructed from broadening of incoherent body-wave pulses - II. Application to Kamchatka data. Geophys.J.Int., V. 136, p. 309-323. pdf >>

Petukhin A.G., A.A., Gusev, E.M. Guseva, E.I. Gordeev, V.N. Chebrov. 1999. Preliminary Model for Scaling of Fourier Spectra of Strong Ground Motion Recorded on Kamchatka. Pure Appl. Geophys, V. 156, p. 445-468. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., L.S. Shumilina. 2000. Modeling the Intensity-Magnitude-Distance Relation Based on the Concept of an Incoherent Extended Earthquake Source. Volc. Seis., V. 21, p. 443-463. pdf >>


Shumilina L.S., A.A., Gusev, V.M. Pavlov. 2000. An improved technique for determination of seismic hazard. J.of Earthquake Prediction Research, V. 8, No 1, p. 104-110. pdf >>


Parvez I.A., A.A. Gusev, G.F. Panza, A.G. Petukhin. 2001. Preliminary determination of the interdependence among strong-motion amplitude, earthquake magnitude and hypocentral distance for the Himalayan region. Geophys. J.Int., V. 144(3). p. 577-596. pdf >>

Gordeev E.I., A.A. Gusev, V.E. Levin, V.F. Bakhtiarov, V.M. Pavlov, V.N. Chebrov, M. Kasahara. 2001. Preliminary analysis of deformation at the Eurasia–Pacific–North America plate junction from GPS data. Geophys. J. Int., V. 147, p. 189–198. pdf >>


Gusev A.A. 2002. On the seismological basis for the seismic building code in Russia. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, V. 38, No 12, p. 1044-1056. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., M. Radulian, M. Rizescu, G.F. Panza. 2002. Source scaling of intermediate-depth Vrancea earthquakes. Geophys. J. Int., V. 151, p. 879–889. pdf >>


Petukhin A.G., A.A. Gusev. 2003. The Duration-distance Relationship and Average Envelope Shapes of Small Kamchatka Earthquakes. Pure appl.geophys, V. 160, p. 1717–1743. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., V.V. Ponomareva, O.A. Braitseva, I.V. Melekestsev, L.D. Sulerzhitsky.2003. Great explosive eruptions on Kamchatka during the last 10,000 years: Self-similar irregularity of the output of volcanic products. J. Geophys. Res., V. 108. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., V.V. Ponomareva, O.A. Braitseva, I.V. Melekestsev, L.D. Sulerzhitsky. Fractal episodicity of great explosive eruptions on kamchatka during holocene. CD-ROM: International Association for Mathematical Geology Meeting "IAMG 2003", Portsmouth, UK, September 7-12, 2003 Session S1, p. 1-6. pdf >>


Gusev A.A., L.S. Shumilina. 2004. Recurrence of Kamchatka Strong Earthquakes on a Scale of Moment Magnitudes. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, V. 40, No 3, p. 206-215. pdf >>

Petukhin A.G., H. Nakahara, A.A. Gusev. 2004. Inversion of the high-frequency source radiation of M6.8 Avachinsky Gulf, Kamchatka, earthquake using empirical and theoretical envelope Green functions. Earth Planets Space, V. 56, p. 921–925. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva, V.M. Pavlov. 2004. Correlation between local slip rate and local high-frequency radiation capability in an earthquake fault. Preprint (IC/2004/1), Triest, 2004, 20 p. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 2004. Order clustering in the sequences of volcanic eruptions and earthquakes of the world. Linkages among tectonics, seismicity, magma genesis and eruption in volcanic arcs. IV International Biennial Workshop on Subduction Processes emphasizing the Japan-Kurile-Kamchatka-Aleutian Arcs. Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky. August 21-27, 2004, p. 12-13. pdf >>


Gusev A.A. 2005. Multiscale Order Grouping in Sequences of Earth's Earthquakes. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, V. 41, No 10, p. 798-812. pdf >>


Gusev A.A., V.M. Pavlov. 2006. Wideband simulation of earthquake ground motion by a spectrum-matching, multiple-pulse technique. First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (a joint event of the 13th ECEE & 30th General Assembly of the ESC) Geneva, Switzerland, 3-8 September 2006, Paper Number: 408. pdf >>

Gusev A.A., V.M. Pavlov. 2006. Wideband simulation of earthquake ground motion by a spectrum-matching, multiple-pulse technique. Preprint (IC/2006/023), Trieste. 2006. 26 p.  pdf >>

Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva and G.F. Panza.2006. Correlation between local slip rate and local high-frequency seismic radiation in an earthquake fault. Pure Appl. Geophys. 163, Iss. 7, p. 1305-1325 DOI:10.1007/s00024-006-0068-4 pdf >>


Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva and G.F. Panza. 2007. Size and duration of the high-frequency radiator in the source of the 2004 December 26 Sumatra earthquake. Geophys. J. Int., v. 170, p. 1119-1128. doi: 10.1111/j.1365-246X.2007.03368.x  pdf >>


Gusev A.A. 2008. Temporal structure of global sequence of volcanic eruptions: order clustering and intermittent discharge rate. Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., V. 166, p. 203-218. pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 2008. Stochastic self-similarity of envelopes of high-frequency teleseismic P-waves from large earthquakes suggests fractal pattern for earthquake rupture. At public repository: http://arxiv.org/abs/0811.1177  pdf >>

Gusev A.A., V. Pavlov, F. Romanelli and G. Panza. 2008. Low-frequency seismic ground motion at the pier positions of the planned Messina Straits bridge for a realistic earthquake scenario. In: 2008 Seismic Engineering Conference: Commemorating the 1908 Messina and Reggio Calabria Earthquake. Amer. Inst. Phys. Conf. Proc., V. 1020, Iss.1, p. 362-369, DOI:10.1063/1.2963858 , ISBN: 978-0-7354-0542-4, pdf >>


Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva, V.M. Pavlov. 2009. Modeling of the Ground Motion for the Petropavlovsk Earthquake of  November 24, 1971 (M = 7.6). Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, v. 45, No 5, p. 395-405. [translation to English] pdf >>

Gusev A. A., V. M. Pavlov. 2009. Broadband Simulation of Earthquake Ground Motion by a Spectrum-Matching, Multiple-Pulse Technique. Earthquake Spectra, V. 25, Issue 2, p. 257-276 (May 2009) pdf >>


Chebrov V.N., A.A. Gusev, V.K. Gusyakov, V.N. Mishatkin and A.A. Poplavskii. 2010. Concept for Devoloping a Seismologic Observation System for Tsunami Warning in the Russian Far East. Seismic Instruments, V. 46, No 3, p. 261-271 [translation to English]   pdf >> 

Gusev A.A. 2010. Approximate Stochastic Self-Similarity of Envelopes of High-Frequency Teleseismic P-Waves from Large Earthquakes. Pure Appl. Geophys. 167 (2010), p. 1343-1363 pdf >>

Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva. 2010. The Geometry and Temporal Structure of High Frequency Source: The Olyutorskii Earthquake of April 20, 2006. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, V. 4, No 2, p. 116–125 [translation to English]  pdf >>

Gusev A. 2010. Theoretical and observed envelopes of scattered high-frequency seismic waves at local to regional distances. Advanced School on Direct and Inverse Problems of Seismology. Trieste, Italy, 27 Sept- 8 October, 2010. Lecture notes. pdf >>;
also at:
http://cdsagenda5.ictp.it/askArchive.php?base=agenda&categ=a09169&id=a09169s3t4/lecture_notes; and 

Chubarova O. S., A. A. Gusev and V. N. Chebrov. 2010 The ground motion excited by the Olyutorskii earthquake of April 20, 2006 and by its aftershocks based on digital recordings. Journal of Volcanology and Seismology, V. 4, No 2 [translation to English] p. 126-138. pdf >>

Chubarova O.S., A.A. Gusev, S.A. Vikulina. 20-s regional surface-wave magnitude for the Russian Far East // Seismic instruments, V. 47, p. 241-245, 2011 [translation into English] pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 2010. Observed HF radiation from an earthquake fault: properties; relation to fault structure; possible generation mechanisms. Abstracts, 7th ACES International Workshop "APEC Cooperation for Earthquake Simulation" 2010 Otaru Japan, http://www.aces.org.au/ACES2010/files/abstracts/2_1400_Gusev_ACES2010_abstract_49399.pdf


Gusev A.A. 2011. Broadband Kinematic Stochastic Simulation of an Earthquake Source: a Refined Procedure for Application in Seismic Hazard Studies. Pure Appl. Geophys, 168 (2011), p. 155–200 pdf >>

Gusev A.A. 2011. Statistics of the Values of a Normalized Slip in the Points of an Earthquake Fault. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2011, V. 47, No 3, p. 176–185. [translation to English] pdf >>


Gusev A.A. 2012. Fractal earthquake source with slip pulse generates аcceleration time histories with flat spectra. Ехtended abstract, ASC meeting, Ulaan-Baatar. pdf >>


Gusev A.A. 2013. Fractal earthquake source with slip zone generates acceleration time histories with flat spectra. Doklady Earth Sciences, V. 448, (2), p. 211–213. pdf>>  

Gusev A.A. 2013. [“Online first” version: 2012] High-Frequency Radiation from an Earthquake Fault: A Review and a Hypothesis of Fractal Rupture Front Geometry. Pure Appl. Geophys. January 2013, V. 170, Issue 1-2, p. 65-93  DOI 10.1007/s00024-012-0455-y pdf >>


Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva. 2014. Scaling properties of corner frequencies of Kamchatka earthquakes. Doklady Earth Sciences. 2014, V. 458, (1), p. 1112–1115. pdf >>

Gusev A. A. 2014. Doubly stochastic earthquake source model: “omega-square” spectrum and low high-frequency directivity revealed by numerical experiments. Pure Appl.Geophys, V. 171, Issue 10, p. 2581-2599, DOI 10.1007/s00024-013-0764-9 pdf>>


Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva. Source Spectra of Near Kamchatka Earthquakes: Recovering them from S-Wave Spectra, and Determination of Scaling for Three Corner Frequencies. Pure Appl. Geophys. 2016, V. 173, Issue 5, pp. 1539-1557. DOI 10.1007/s00024-016-1289-9 pdf>>

Gusev A.A. Comment on "Total Probability Theorem Versus Shakeability: A Comparison between Two Seismic - Hazard Approaches Used in Central Asia" by D. Bindi and S. Parolai by A.A. Gusev. Seismological Research Letters. 2016. 87 (4) DOI:pdf>>

Frank W.B., N.M. Shapiro, A. L. Husker, V. Kostoglodov, A. A. Gusev, M. Campillo. The evolving interaction of low-frequency earthquakes during transient slip. Sci Adv 2016, 2:. doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1501616 pdf>>

Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva. Shear Wave Attenuation Estimated from the Spectral Decay Rate in the Vicinity of the Petropavlovsk Station, Kamchatka. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2016, V. 52, (4), pp. 503–519. pdf>>
[Russian original]: Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva. 2016, No 4, pp. 35-51 pdf>>

Gusev A.A. Characteristic scale of heterogeneity of seismically active fault and its manifestation in scaling of earthquake source spectra. Doklady Earth Sciences. 2016, Vol. 470, Part 2, pp. 1104–1108. pdf>>
[Russian original]: Gusev A.A. 2016, published in Doklady Akademii Nauk, 2016, Vol. 470, No. 6, pp. 711–715. pdf>>

Gusev A.A., O.S. Chubarova. Regional Long-Period Magnitude Scales and Their Capabilities for Tsunami Warning. Izvestiya, Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics, 2016, Vol. 52, No. 8, pp. 797–805. pdf>>
[Russian original]: Gusev A.A., O.S. Chubarova, 2016, published in Geofizicheskie Protsessy i Biosfera, 2016, Vol. 15, No. 1, pp. 43–56. pdf>>

Magrin A.A, A. Gusev, F. Romanelli, F. Vaccari and G. F. Panza. Broadband NDSHA computations and earthquake ground motion observations for the Italian territory. Int. J. Earthquake and Impact Engineering, 2016 Vol. 1, Nos. 1/2, 2016., pp. 131 -158. pdf>>

Gusev A.A., Skorkina A.A. and Guseva E.M. Three-corner representation of earthquake source spectra at Kamchatka. The 11th Asian Seismological Commission General Assembly, 2016. Nov 25-27, Melbourne, Vic. pdf>>

Gusev A.A., Palueva A.A. Orientation of links connecting pairs of neighbour epicentres on Kamchatka is non-random, and varies in space and time. The 11th Asian Seismological Commission General Assembly, 2016. Nov 25-27, Melbourne, Vic. pdf>>



Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva. The character of scaling earthquake source spectra for Kamchatka in the 3.5-6.5 magnitude range. Doklady Earth Sciences. 2017, Vol. 472, Part 2, pp. 211–214. pdf>>
DOI 10.1134/S1028334X1702012X;
[Russian original]: Gusev A.A., E.M. Guseva, 2017, published in Doklady Akademii Nauk, 2017, Vol. 472, No. 5, pp. 580–583. pdf>>

Chubarova O.S., A.A. Gusev. A Regional Surface Wave Magnitude Scale for the Earthquakes of Russia’s Far East, Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2017, Vol. 53, No. 1, pp. 58–68. pdf>>
[Russian original]: Chubarova O.S., A.A. Gusev, published in Fizika Zemli, 2017, No. 1, pp. 60–71. pdf>>

Skorkina A.A., A.A. Gusev 2017. Determination of corner frequencies of source spectra for subduction earthquakes in Avacha Gulf (Kamchatka). Russian Geology and Geophysics, 58(7), 844–854.
doi: j.rgg.2017.06.007 pdf>>
[Russian original]: Skorkina A.A., A.A. Gusev 2017, published in Russian Geology and Geophysics 58 (7) 1057–1068 pdf>>

Shapiro N.M, Droznin  D.V., Droznina S.Ya., Senyukov S.L., Gusev A.A., Gordeev E.I. Deep and shallow long-period volcanic seismicity linked by fluid-pressure transfer. Nature Geoscience. 2017. V. 10, No 6, pp. 442-445. D                  Doi: 10.1038/NGEO2952  pdf>>


Abubakirov I. R., A. A. Gusev, E. M. Guseva, V. M. Pavlov, and A. A. Skorkina. Mass Determination of Moment Magnitudes Mw and Establishing the Relationship between Mw and ML for Moderate and Small Kamchatka Earthquakes. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2018, Vol. 54, No. 1, pp. 33–47. pdf>>
[Russian original]: Abubakirov I. R., A. A. Gusev, E. M. Guseva, V. M. Pavlov, and A. A. Skorkina, published in Fizika Zemli 2018, No 1, pp. 37- 51. pdf>>

Gusev A.A. Random kinematics of unbounded earthquake rupture propagation simulated using a cellular model. Geophys. J. Int. (2018) 215, 924–941 doi: 10.1093/gji/ggy308 pdf>>


Gusev A. A., D. Chebrov. 2019. On Scaling of Earthquake Rise-Time Estimates. Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America (2019) 109 (6): 2741–2745    doi: 10.1785/0120180214 pdf>>

Chebrov D. V., Yu. A. Kugaenko, A. V. Lander, I. R. Abubakirov, A. A. Gusev, S. Ya. Droznina, S. V. Mityushkina,  D. A. Ototyuk, V. M. Pavlov, and N. N. Titkov. Near Islands Aleutian Earthquake with MW = 7.8 on July 17, 2017: I. Extended Rupture along the Commander Block of the Aleutian Island Arc from Observations in Kamchatka. Izvestiya, Physics of the Solid Earth, 2019, Vol. 55, No. 4, pp. 576–599. DOI: 10.1134/S1069351319040037 pdf>>

[Russian original]: Chebrov D. V., Yu. A. Kugaenko, A. V. Lander, I. R. Abubakirov, A. A. Gusev, S. Ya. Droznina, S. V. Mityushkina,  D. A. Ototyuk, V. M. Pavlov, and N. N. Titkov, published in Fizika Zemli 2019, № 4, pp. 48- 71. DOI: https://doi.org/10.31857/S0002-33372019448-71   pdf>>









last edited January 2019



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